Experts shared with The Hanoi Times their views on Vietnam’s economic outlook in 2023, as the country has set a GDP growth target of 6.5% on the back of an 8% economic growth rate in 2022.
Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Director of the Institute of Brand and Competition Strategy: Vietnam’s economy on the rise
|Dr. Vo Tri Thanh - Director of the Institute of Brand and Competition Strategy.|
Vietnam's economy has recorded impressive growth, as the country’s positive economic performance is recognized by prestigious international institutions and organizations.
Along with a positive economic development level, Vietnam’s status and influence on the global stage are also rising.
In the face of difficulties and challenges of the global economy, Vietnam has effectively utilized its internal resources, attracted a wave of investment, and made good use of opportunities to further integrate into the global value chains.
Vietnam has one of the largest domestic markets in the world, at the same time, the country is expanding its foothold on the international markets.
Supply chains are disrupted in many parts of the world, but Vietnam's export growth during the pandemic has always been high. The country’s main characteristic is a manufacturing economy, so it is less affected than those service-oriented during a difficult period.
In addition, Vietnam's export products are mainly consumer goods instead of means of production, so they can still be consumed during the recession, albeit at a lower level. Those are the basis for believing that Vietnam's economy will grow positively in the coming year.
Dr. Tran Toan Thang - National Center for Socio-economic Information and Forecast (Ministry of Planning and Investment): GDP growth of 6.5-6.7% within reach
|Dr. Tran Toan Thang - National Center for Socio-economic Information and Forecast.|
In 2022, Vietnam's economy outperformed other countries in the region thanks to a recovery in consumer spending, strong exports in several quarters, and a gradual opening to international tourism. The country’s economic performance this year would depend on many factors such as the Government’s ability to control inflation, the development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the recovery of the global economy, especially Vietnam's major economic partners.
Along with that are the overall efforts to implement solutions to promote economic growth and realize the socio-economic development and recovery program. With such factors, Vietnam's economic growth in 2023 can fluctuate between 6-6.7%.
In my view, I expect Vietnam's GDP to grow by 6.7% over the same period, above the government's target of 6.5%. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are estimated to grow by 2.9% y-o-y. Industry and construction could grow by 7.1% inter-annually and services by 7.3%.
Dr. Can Van Luc: Grasping economic opportunities
|Dr. Can Van Luc.|
In 2023, Vietnam reached the threshold of 100 million people and a nominal GDP value of VND10,000 trillion (US$423 billion). Although Vietnam's economy is recovering strongly, uncertainties have also increased.
Many breakthroughs are needed, both in awareness and in the legal institution, to remove bottlenecks in supply and demand stability, including prices of essential commodities.
The Government should take stronger measures to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital, promote the healthy development of the corporate bond, real estate, and credit markets, as well as in economic restructuring and reorientation of production and business activities.
Another focus is for Vietnam to enhance FDI attraction and promote the linkage between the foreign-invested sector and the domestic economy; continue to promote the digital economy, green economy, circular economy, control bad debt, tax arrears, and capital costs of enterprises.
From the business perspective, it is essential for them to better grasp opportunities under the next-generation free trade agreements.
ADB Chief Economist Albert Park: Consumption and tourism rebound strongly
Meanwhile, inflation is well contained, creating flexible and prudent monetary policy management conditions. The low budget deficit and the positive budget collection have expanded the room for the Government to maneuver fiscal policy.
Vietnam should maintain and promote the positive impacts of this recovery process and lay the foundation for the economy to continue its development path.
In addition, many medium and long-term development plans have been approved, including supporting packages under the 2022-2023 socio-economic recovery program, so it is expected that these programs would be implemented faster and with greater positive impacts on the economy.
A strong recovery in consumption and tourism are factors for ADB to maintain its optimistic economic growth forecast in countries such as Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam in 2022.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien: Prioritize macroeconomic stability
|Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien.|
In 2023, the biggest challenge for Vietnam's economy is maintaining macroeconomic stability rather than economic growth. Macro stability is about containing inflation and many issues, such as bad debt and fluctuations in real estate and financial markets.
Looking at this aspect, it is clear that Vietnam's economy is facing significant challenges. The shock in the bond market, the abnormal volatility in the real estate market, the decline of the stock market, and even the petrol shortage are the problems facing the Vietnamese economy.
In 2023, when the ongoing financial support ends, businesses must fulfill their current financial obligations and gradually repay the delayed amounts in the past two years, not to mention their due debts.
Bearing this in mind, the Government should prepare plans to support businesses to deal with the worst scenario when an economic crisis occurs.
Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - Deputy Director of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR): The necessity to improve the business environment, labor productivity
|Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - Deputy Director of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research.|
By 2022, Vietnam had achieved and surpassed 14 of the 15 socio-economic development targets, leaving one unmet, which is labor productivity. For Vietnam to maintain a faster and more sustainable GDP growth, the country needs to focus on institutional reform for greater improvements in the business environment. To this end, fostering entrepreneurship is an important driver of economic growth, while a transparent and predictable business environment will help reduce risks and costs for companies, thus creating motivation for them to improve labor productivity.
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