At the latest now, people inside and outside Europe all know for sure that the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine in Ukraine will further go on, will further last, and will continue to dominate the world and Europe politics. But regardless of any possible end, Europe, and to the same extent the world too, has profoundly changed. After this Ukraine-conflict, the world would become another one and Europe the other continent.
|Ukrainians evacuate out of Irpin, northwest of Kiev, on March 8, 2022. Photo: VNA|
A schism is now tearing this continent. For decades lasting belief and conviction of durable common peace and security, cooperation and mutual trust have been abruptly collapsed like a house of cards. Europe was thrown back into one dark time in the past. After the Ukraine-problem were solved, countries and people in Europe will need very much time to overcome the militarily, geopolitically, and a new security-politically division of the continent. For a long time ahead, Europe has to live with the permanent feeling that wars or military confrontations could, again and again, break out somewhere on the continent but with the power which were more than able to shake and shock, change and transform the whole continent.
An enhanced arms race will become inevitable in Europe, in Russia, and all European Nato member states as well as non-Nato member states. Europe will witness a not short epoche where the military powers and capabilities, potentials, and superiority of countries or alliances will play the decisive role in the continent's security and stability, cooperation, and integration between countries and regions on the continent. All existent institutions and alliances will be new organized, structured, strategically re-oriented and some new ones will be established, first of all, Nato, EU, and all Russland-led institutions and alliances. Europe will wistfully long for the good old days.
At least for the times coming, Europe will become and remain the most problematic content of the world. It will mostly be busy with itself and couldn't increase its role and influence in the world as it has been before. How tragic and sad for this beautiful continent.
Ideological confrontation and military mistrust, political and economic insecurity and instability, forming blocks instead of cooperation and integration - all that will shape Europe in the times ahead. Whether this epoche full of troubles and uncertainties would be long or short for Europe mostly depends on the outcome of the now ongoing military crashes in Ukraine, on how profoundly Russia will be changed by it, on whether the West and Russia at the end could successfully reset their relationships and dare to come to the ultimate agreement on the new political, geopolitical, security order and military and strategic balances in Europe and for Europe.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by Ambassador Tran Duc Mau are of his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Hanoi Times.