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Joe Biden's Russia strategy
Ambassador Tran Duc Mau 10:49, 2022/02/17
US president Joe Biden's America was caught off guard by his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin's new game with security in Europe.

 After a short time, the Russian president scored his first win after having have forced the US and Nato to become busy with Russia in Europe and to deal with Russia on the new security situation in Europe.

 US President Joe Biden. Photo: AP/VNA

What Russia does has already achieved is the US and Nato couldn't ignore anymore Russia's new security concerns. Therefore, this game could only come to a possible end when the US and Nato will finally be ready or must finally be ready to make certain concessions, not necessarily all, to Russia.

But at present, they seem not to be ready. They just want to stop Russia from waging wars in Europe. Joe Biden's strategy consists of diplomacy with Russia and deterrence against the country, namely maintaining all diplomatic channels with Russia and tightening deterrence against Russia. 

His strategy can be roughly characterized by the following points.

First, he, like America's allies in Europe, only wants to protect Ukraine from new military attacks by the Russian army and doesn't want to touch any existing security architectures and constellations in Europe. He left open the possibility of Ukraine's joining the Nato to preserve means and ways to increase pressure on Russia or to deescalate tension and confrontation with Russia. 

Second, he maintains diplomacy with Russia primarily to keep the channel to transfer to Russia his deterrence and threat to impose extremely tough sanctions on Russia and to preserve chances to offer Russia some concessions just in time when he thinks that Russia soon decides to wage war with Ukraine. The related latest evidence is his offers to Russia to talk on arms control, transparency, reduction of missiles deployed in some European Nato member states...

Third, he deliberately exaggerates the danger of war between Russia and Ukraine to the same extent of war hysteria and publicly appears to exactly know about Russia's concrete intentions and times plans to carry out military attacks against Russia to disgrace Russia internationally and to brand Russia as the aggressor in case of war breaking out. For this goal, he has often made much US intelligence information about Russia's war preparations and attack plans. 

Finally, he sent a small contingent of US troops to Europe, provided Ukraine some financial support, considered US arms supply to Ukraine, and, of course, strongly confirmed that the US stands on Ukraine's side in the present stand-off between Ukraine and Russia. But he can't dare to let US troops fighting in Ukraine at the same front line together with Ukraine's army. 

He makes world politics with the scenario of breaking out war in Europe while his Russian counterpart plays his game under the dust of much more others scenarios, including Joe Biden's one. 

Disclaimer: The views expressed by Ambassador Tran Duc Mau are of his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Hanoi Times.

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