Vietnam’s economic growth is estimated to reach 6.8% per year in the medium term 2021 – 2025 in the positive scenario, according to the latest forecast from the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting (NCIF) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong addresses the workshop on January 20 in Hanoi. Photo: NCIF

On the basis of analyzing and evaluating the impacting factors and adjustments in the medium term 2021-2025, the NCIF updated its forecast of economic growth in the period in two scenarios.

Speaking at the workshop entitled "Vietnam’s economy in the medium term 2021-2025: Recovery and Growth Accelerates” held on January 20 in Hanoi, Dr. Dang Duc Anh, Deputy Director of the NCIF, said that in the following years of the 2021-2025 period, Vietnam's economy could not make a breakthrough because there were still existing many internal difficulties.

In the basic scenario, the economic growth rate will reach about 6.3% per year in 2021-2025 in the context of risks of Covid-19 being present, moderate efficiency of the government’s solutions to help the economy, the prolonged world instability and the slow economic and trade growth.

In 2021, Vietnam’s economy growth is likely to be high again, which is estimated at 6.17% in the basic scenario and 6.72% in the positive situation, Dr. Duc Anh said.

Policy recommendations

At the event, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong said that Covid-19 has brought new challenges and opportunities to Vietnam in the 2021-25 period, including the emergence of new trends, the reshaping of international financial flows, trade and investment, especially supply chain shifts.

Being able to harness new opportunities for economic recovery in 2021 and a making breakthrough in the next five years are particularly important in order to achieve the goals set by the Party and State for the term, Deputy Minister. Phuong said.

Economic experts and delegates disccus about policies on boosting economic growth. Photo: NCIF

At the workshop, economic experts and delegates recommended some policies on boosting economic growth. It is necessary to control the pandemic, continue measures to support economic development and social security and soon deploy measures to stimulate economic rather than support, they said.

Ms. Caitlin Wiesen, UNDP Resident Representative in Vietnam, suggested four key actions that could help Vietnam recover strongly from Covid-19 and leave no one behind, of which manufacturing and exports are the main driver of sustainable employment, productivity and income growth. Vietnam should ensure a balance between economic growth and environmental protection, by transforming the economy, including production and consumption, towards green growth and energy efficiency, she said.

Ms. Wiesen also suggested that Vietnam should develop domestic capital market and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of utilizing all development finance resources to achieve the sustainable development goals.  

The country also needs to continue applying the AAA management method (anticipatory, adaptive and agile) to create innovative solutions deployed by Vietnamese people and organizations in Vietnam, according to the UNDP Resident Representative.