31st Sea Games - Vietnam 2021 Covid-19 Pandemic
Home / Economy / Trade - Service
Vietnam recovery prospects remain brightest in Southeast Asia: ICAEW
Ngoc Thuy 12:49, 2020/09/10
In 2020, Vietnam’s GDP growth is set to hit 2.3% and then rebound strongly to 8% in 2021.

The recovery prospects look brightest for Vietnam, which is expected to be the only Southeast Asian economy to record positive growth this year, according to the latest Global Economic Outlook report from Oxford Economics.

 The recovery prospects look brightest for Vietnam.

In 2020, Vietnam’s GDP growth is set to hit 2.3% and then rebound strongly to 8% in 2021, stated the report commissioned by chartered accountancy body ICAEW.

Overall, Southeast Asia's GDP is expected to shrink 4.2% in 2020. It added that the strength of the rebound in economic activity over the coming quarters in the region remains uncertain, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2020, after the expected initial strong bounce in global trade and domestic activity post-lockdowns has faded.

Mark Billington, ICAEW regional director, Greater China and South-East Asia, said there is no long-term solution for economic recovery in Southeast Asia, referring to the existing US-China tensions, a long-term slowdown in global trade activity, and a prolonged Covid-19 pandemic weighing on the region’s growth prospects.

The report expected countries that have effectively contained the pandemic such as Vietnam and Thailand would see a stronger recovery than Indonesia and the Philippines, which are battling new waves of Covid-19 outbreak after restrictions were prematurely relaxed. 

 

It noted that both Indonesia and the Philippines remain highly vulnerable as they have weaker public health infrastructure, lower levels of fiscal support available, and are much more consumer driven than others in the region. 

The pace of recovery in Indonesia is expected to be slow and household income will be squeezed. GDP is expected to contract 2.7% in 2020 before a 6.2% expansion in 2021. The Philippines is set to record the largest contraction in Southeast Asia, with its GDP falling 8.2% in 2020, because of its dependence on international tourism and a slow exit from lockdown.

Malaysia’s exports meanwhile are predicted to benefit from improving Chinese import demand and the electronics cycle. Nonetheless, the speed of its recovery will likely slow given the current sluggish global demand, high unemployment and weak investment, and its economy is forecast to shrink by 6% this year, followed by growth of 6.6% in 2021.

Given the lack of tangible medical progress towards overcoming the pandemic, among other issues, the report revised down its forecast for global GDP negative growth in 2021 to 5.4% (from 5.8% seen last month) after an expected 4.4% drop this year.

RELATED NEWS
TAG: Vietnam Southeast Asia Malaysia Indonesia ASEAN Philippines ASEAN GDP growth covid-19 coronavirus ICAEW
Other news
20:54, 2022/54/11
Vietnam willing to work with US on emerging issues: Spokeswoman
Vietnam says that its trade relations with the US have coincided with the World Trade Organization's regulations.
15:01, 2022/01/11
OCOP promotion event underway in Hanoi
The fair will run until August 14 in Hanoi.
13:43, 2022/43/11
Vietnam Manufacturing Expo 2022 to open in Hanoi
Vietnam Manufacturing Expo (VME) 2022 will be held until August 12 at the Friendship Cultural Palace, 91 Tran Hung Dao Street, Hanoi.
17:25, 2022/25/09
Vietnamese Gov’t halves MFN tariff on petrol products to 10%
Such a move will help Vietnam diversify oil import sources from China, the US, and the Middle East, and avoid dependence on certain partners amid growing global uncertainties.
16:25, 2022/25/09
Vietnamese tourism looks at niche markets
Travel businesses will concentrate on niche markets rather than traditional markets such as South Korea or Japan.
15:10, 2022/10/09
EVFTA drives Vietnam’s exports forward
Local companies could further improve their utilization rate of the trade agreement to gain a larger share of the EU market.