WORDS ON THE STREET 70th anniversary of Hanoi's Liberation Day Vietnam - Asia 2023 Smart City Summit Hanoi celebrates 15 years of administrative boundary adjustment 12th Vietnam-France decentrialized cooperation conference 31st Sea Games - Vietnam 2021 Covid-19 Pandemic
Home / Economy / Trade - Service
Vietnam recovery prospects remain brightest in Southeast Asia: ICAEW
Ngoc Thuy 12:49, 2020/09/10
In 2020, Vietnam’s GDP growth is set to hit 2.3% and then rebound strongly to 8% in 2021.

The recovery prospects look brightest for Vietnam, which is expected to be the only Southeast Asian economy to record positive growth this year, according to the latest Global Economic Outlook report from Oxford Economics.

 The recovery prospects look brightest for Vietnam.

In 2020, Vietnam’s GDP growth is set to hit 2.3% and then rebound strongly to 8% in 2021, stated the report commissioned by chartered accountancy body ICAEW.

Overall, Southeast Asia's GDP is expected to shrink 4.2% in 2020. It added that the strength of the rebound in economic activity over the coming quarters in the region remains uncertain, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2020, after the expected initial strong bounce in global trade and domestic activity post-lockdowns has faded.

Mark Billington, ICAEW regional director, Greater China and South-East Asia, said there is no long-term solution for economic recovery in Southeast Asia, referring to the existing US-China tensions, a long-term slowdown in global trade activity, and a prolonged Covid-19 pandemic weighing on the region’s growth prospects.

The report expected countries that have effectively contained the pandemic such as Vietnam and Thailand would see a stronger recovery than Indonesia and the Philippines, which are battling new waves of Covid-19 outbreak after restrictions were prematurely relaxed. 

 

It noted that both Indonesia and the Philippines remain highly vulnerable as they have weaker public health infrastructure, lower levels of fiscal support available, and are much more consumer driven than others in the region. 

The pace of recovery in Indonesia is expected to be slow and household income will be squeezed. GDP is expected to contract 2.7% in 2020 before a 6.2% expansion in 2021. The Philippines is set to record the largest contraction in Southeast Asia, with its GDP falling 8.2% in 2020, because of its dependence on international tourism and a slow exit from lockdown.

Malaysia’s exports meanwhile are predicted to benefit from improving Chinese import demand and the electronics cycle. Nonetheless, the speed of its recovery will likely slow given the current sluggish global demand, high unemployment and weak investment, and its economy is forecast to shrink by 6% this year, followed by growth of 6.6% in 2021.

Given the lack of tangible medical progress towards overcoming the pandemic, among other issues, the report revised down its forecast for global GDP negative growth in 2021 to 5.4% (from 5.8% seen last month) after an expected 4.4% drop this year.

RELATED NEWS
TAG: Vietnam Southeast Asia Malaysia Indonesia ASEAN Philippines ASEAN GDP growth covid-19 coronavirus ICAEW
Other news
14:06, 2024/11/20
Hanoi strengthens export competitiveness and trade protection measures
Hanoi will work with the Ministry of Industry and Trade to ensure that businesses and manufacturers are ready for new challenges.
10:49, 2024/11/16
US reiterates Vietnam is not manipulating currency
The US Treasury Department’s positive evaluation underscores Vietnam’s progress in balancing its economic and monetary policies while fostering strong bilateral relations with the US.
21:14, 2024/10/31
Vietnam, Brazil: Building bridges through shared history and new partnerships
Vietnam and Brazil are forging a future of mutual development, bridging continents through their shared history and new partnerships.
16:54, 2024/10/29
Hanoi to attract tourists by showcasing local specialties at wholesale markets
Hanoi aims to enhance supervision of food safety and traceability, along with promoting cashless transactions.
16:28, 2024/10/27
National E-commerce Week, Vietnam Online Shopping Day 2024 set to kick off
This year's event will focus on celebrating and raising the status of Vietnamese products, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
18:39, 2024/10/21
Vietnamese goods in rising demand among Hanoi residents
The domestic market, estimated to be worth US$180 billion and projected to grow to US$350 billion by 2025, presents an opportunity for Vietnamese goods to gain a foothold domestically.