On February 24th of this year, the war in Ukraine entered into its third year. In the past two years, this war profoundly changed the world. It will continue to change the world in the times coming because there is now no sign hinting when it how might and could come to an end.
| Ukraine soldiers support the evacuation of residents in Irpin, Kiev on March 8, 2022. Photo: AFP/VNA |
During the past two years, both Russia and Ukraine won and lost in this war. Russia gained control over some Ukrainian territories but was pushed back and resisted and missed its goal to dictate the war. Ukraine lost some territories to Russia but proved itself as a militarily equal adversary to Russia. It was hard for Ukraine to defend but it was not easy for Russia to defeat Ukraine. Who has won or lost in the past two years depends on who observes the war from which perspective. But what is quite clear is that both Russia and Ukraine continue to be firmly determined to militarily defeat each other, do not want any political and peaceful solution, and strongly believe in still being able to win this war, both militarily and politically despite heavy loss and destruction on both sides. That exactly is the core of the tragedy of this war.
After two years, this war will still be going on. Because the West has to and will continue to militarily, politically, and financially support Ukraine to not collapse and to be capable of war with Russia. Because Russia successfully resisted all sanctions and pressures imposed on it by the West. It is now clearer than ever before that this war could only be ended by Russia and the West and not by Ukraine. The fate and future of Ukraine are in the Western hands. The financial and weaponry resources of the West are not unlimited and it is for all countries supporting Ukraine domestically more and more to continue to support Ukraine fighting Russia. Therefore, the West will be in the next time more engaged in the strategy to go on supporting Ukraine and at the same time press Ukraine to seek a political peaceful solution with Russia.
Such a solution is still impossible in the foreseeable future because Russia and Ukraine couldn't agree with each other on three main and most decisive issues: Ukrainian territories seized by Russia since 2014, reparations after the war, and security guarantees for Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. Otherwise, as long as one of the two sides, Russia or Ukraine, still believes in military victories as they now both do, there isn't any readiness to accept peaceful negotiations on a political solution for this war. Therefore, the just starting third war year will be the deciding one for this war.
This war has made the world becoming more chaotic, unstable, insecure, and uncertain in almost all aspects. But after two years of war in Ukraine, the world is still at the turning points between two eras. One knows that the old is already vanished but the new is not yet emerged. And that is bad news for the world.
Disclaimer: The reflections expressed by Ambassador Tran Duc Mau are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Hanoi Times.
