Ukraine’s incursion into Russia's Kursk region was a heavy slap in Russia's face. It was Ukraine's most significant attack on Russia's soil since the Ukraine war started in 2022. Russia was truly surprised and is now having many political and military difficulties in dealing with this new situation. But the question is whether it would be profitable or costly for Ukraine. 

Russian soldiers in a military exercise. Photo: AFP/VNA

Firstly, it is certainly media-effective for Ukraine. Bringing war into Russia's territories is one of Ukraine's strategies against Russia and this incursion 35km-deep into Russian soil is Ukraine's most convincing proof Ukraine could ever be delivered until now, much more clearer and convincing than any military attacks Ukraine has ever carried out in Crimea and on the Black Sea against Russia. It was Ukraine's most important military victory Ukraine has gained since its retake of Kherson in 2022. It has had morally strong impacts on Ukrainians at the time which seems to generally be not good and easy for Ukraine. Ukraine demonstrates not only its political determination but also its military capabilities to continue its war with Russia. It sent its core message that Russia couldn't defeat and conquer Ukraine. By doing so, Ukraine encouraged its Western allies to continue pouring their money and weapons into Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine is surely aiming at discouraging Russian populations and sowing divisions between Russians and the country's leadership, thus isolating Russia's president Vladimir Putin.

Another purpose of Ukraine's military incursion into Russia's territory might be to try to have bargaining chips for negotiations with Russia in the future - in the form of Russian prisoners and territories. 

But it would imply many high risks to Ukraine. It provokes a full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia along their entire long common border. It might turn counterproductive for Ukraine if it would enhance the unity and solidarity among Russians and their support for Russia's Putin and leadership in Russia's war with and against Ukraine.    

And Russia would surely respond by striking back, retaliating, and strengthening military activities on all fronts. It would be very hard and costly for Ukraine to keep the Russian territories it already took under its control. Russia would certainly prepare itself for future Ukraine military attacks or incursions so that Ukraine would hardly be military and politically successful again.

It remains unclear whether the Ukraine war has basically changed after the recent incursion of the Ukrainian army in Russia's Kursk region. But it makes clear that the reaching of any peaceful political solution for the war between Ukraine and Russia is now becoming more unlikely than ever before.  

Disclaimer: The views expressed by Ambassador Tran Duc Mau are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Hanoi Times.