Pressure from high pork prices may push the inflation to over 4% in the first quarter of 2020, but it is still feasible for Vietnam to keep the rate below the 4% target set by the National Assembly for 2020, according to Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue.

Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue (standing) at the meeting. Source: VGP

The inflation is estimated to be in range of 3.59 – 3.91% for 2020, much higher than the rate of 2.7 – 2.8% for this year, said Hue, who is also heads the government’s Steering Committee on Price Management, in a meeting on December 25.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien said a slump in pork supply led to a surge in the price, which is one of major factors behind the increasing consumer price index (CPI). However, the pork supply to date, having increased by 760,000 tons against 2018, has helped partly cover the shortage.

Tien added starting January 2020, Vietnam would continue to import pork to meet the domestic demand.

Regarding this issue, Deputy PM Hue requested government agencies to ensure sufficient supply of pork in case of shortage.

Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc yesterday said with the remaining of 25 million pigs after the African swine fever, Vietnam has sufficient pork supply for the domestic market. “Anyone who commits speculation of pork  would be punished,” he warned.

Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) show African swine fever led to a loss of 342,000 tons of pork, however, Vietnam still managed to save around 25 million pigs and 109,000 breeding pigs.

The MARD reported in the fourth quarter of 2019, demand for pork in Vietnam is estimated at 600,000 tons, while supply is over 400,000, indicating a shortage of 200,000 tons. However, recently, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said the shortage may be 300,000 tons.

Data from the General Statistics Office (GSO) showed pork price increased 19% year-on-year as of November.