While Vietnam is at risk of being listed as currency manipulator by the US, such a risk appears low, as the US will likely continue to reduce its dependence on Chinese exports by reorganizing its supply chain with other partners.

Vietnam’s central bank is expected to pursue a stronger dong, especially as this might weigh on the recovery of the country’s export-oriented manufacturing sector over the coming months.

Any currency weakness is likely to be mild so as to avoid possible sanctions from the US given Vietnam's inclusion in the US Treasury’s currency manipulator watch list.