Hanoi’s gross regional domestic product (GRDP) growth is estimated at 3.72% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020, the slowest pace in many years and significantly lower than an expansion of 6.99% recorded in the same period last year. 

Data: Hanoi Statistics Office. Chart: Ngoc Thuy

In the three-month period, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector declined by 1.17% compared to an increase of 3.19% in Q1 last year. Meanwhile, the industry and construction sector rose by 5.46%, contributing 0.96 percentage points to the overall growth, and the services sector climbed by 3.2%.

In addition to the Covid-19 pandemic, the agro-forestry-fishery sector has still been hurt by the African swine fever since 2019 that caused the city’s hog herd to shrink by 41.2% year-on-year.

The office added that the city's industrial production in Q1 registered modest growth of 5.09% year-on-year, lower than the growth rate of 6.96% in the same period last year. This came as a direct result of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has disrupted the supply of Chinese input materials for domestic production.

Moreover, the enforcement of the government’s Decree No.100 on administrative sanctions for road traffic and rail transport violations since the start of the year has also affected the food and beverage sector.

Despite the impacts of Covid-19, the wholesale and retail sector has maintained positive growth, thanks to a shift to online sales from brick-and-mortar shops.

Meanwhile, transportation and logistics sectors suffered a decline of 5.15% year-on-year; accommodation and catering services were down 21.77%; entertainment down 7.41%,

Based on preliminary data from the first two months of 2020, Hanoi’s authorities have drafted three growth scenarios. In the first scenario and also the most optimistic one, Hanoi could still achieve target growth rate of 7.5% if the pandemic is contained in Q1, with a strong rebound in Q2 and growth acceleration in Q3 and Q4.

However, in case the pandemic is put under control in Q1, but its negative impacts on the economy continue to linger, the GRDP is expected to expand 6.93% this year.

In the worst scenario where the Covid-19 pandemic persists until Q2 and affects the subsequent quarters, Hanoi’s GRDP is projected to grow 6.42%.